Dublin South Central constituency profile: Sinn Féin’s reversal of fortunes has put paid to a second seat for them

Outgoing TDs: Aengus Ó Snodaigh (SF), Bríd Smith (PBP); Joan Collins (RTC); Patrick Costello (GP).
Who are the candidates running in Dublin South Central? Deputy Aengus Ó Snodaigh (SF), Cllr Máire Devine (SF); Deputy Joan Collins (RTC), Deputy Patrick Costello (Green Party); Senator Catherine Ardagh (FF); Senator Mary Seery Kearney (FG); Cllr Darragh Moriarty (Lab); Cllr Hazel De Nortúin (PBP); Cllr Jen Cummins (SD); Cllr Philip Sutcliffe (II); Aisling Considine (Aon); Rebecca Hendrick (II); Barry Ward (IFP); Jina Ahearne (NA); Dolores Webster (Ind).
The election results in Dublin South Central in 2020 are difficult to use as a guide to anything. Sinn Féin ran only one candidate, Aengus Ó Snodaigh, and he pulled in a huge vote, getting 39 per cent of all first preferences, just shy of two quotas.
Such was his tally that, in the absence of a party colleague, two other candidates seen as anti-establishment, Bríd Smith of People Before Profit and Walkinstown-based independent Joan Collins, both benefited significantly.
He transferred almost 5,000 votes to Smith, who, like him, is based in Ballyfermot, from his surplus, ensuring her election. Collins also got a significant boost, which helped her take the last seat of the four in the constituency.
Green standard-bearer Patrick Costello was fishing out of a different pond but stayed in advance of the candidates from Labour and the Social Democrats (both of whom transferred heavily to him). For Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, it was the reverse. For the second election in a row Catherine Ardagh polled relatively well in the first count but could not buy transfers. Similarly, Catherine Byrne limped to defeat in the sixth count despite finishing second after count one.
Sinn Féin’s reverse in opinion polls in the past years has more or less put paid to a second seat out of four here. Its second candidate, Máire Devine, did win a council seat in the South West Inner City in June but came in fourth out of fifth.
Ó Snodaigh is the only TD guaranteed to be elected. Smith has stood down and her successor, Hazel de Nortúin (a councillor in Ballyfermot), will have a battle on her hands to retain the seat. Collins’s organisation is based in Walkinstown and she will need to increase her first-preference vote to double digits in order to survive. Costello’s seat looked doubtful but the Greens topped the poll in two of the three local electoral areas and got a councillor elected in Ballyfermot for the first time. He seems to have the strongest chance outside of Ó Snodaigh of retaining his seat.
What of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael? Both parties believe they are in the running for a seat but they won’t take a seat each. Whoever of Ardagh and Mary Seery Kearney stays ahead will rely heavily on their Coalition partner for transfers, and even that might not be enough.
Labour once had two seats here and the Social Democrats has been on a slow upward curve. Labour’s new candidate, Darragh Moriarty, who replaces Rebecca Moynihan, did well in the locals. He’s from the area and has run an energetic campaign. Jen Cummins drew a big vote out of the Tenters area but would need to extend her appeal.
Don’t discount candidates with an anti-immigrant message. Boxing coach Phil Sutcliffe, backed by Conor McGregor, won a seat on Dublin City Council and is running again. In Ballyfermot-Drimnagh three candidates who specifically campaigned on anti-migration platforms took 17.6 per cent of the first preferences in the local elections.
The constituency remains a four-seater but has lost some of its territory to Dublin Bay South and also to Dublin Mid West, on the western side of the 50. The effect of the latter change is to bring the whole constituency into the Dublin City Council area.
It’s a mixed constituency with big working-class areas, a smaller middle-class area, and inner city communities, some of which have seen gentrification in the past generation. It tends to be left-leaning.
Possible outcome: Sinn Féin (1), Green Party (1), Independent (1), Fine Gael (1)